Canadian Election Polls: Carney vs. Poilievre in 2025 – A Tight Race Ahead
As Canadians gear up for the April 28, 2025, federal election, the contest between Liberal leader Mark Carney and Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre is shaping up to be a closely contested battle. Recent polls indicate a tight race, with the Liberals leading slightly at 39% and the Conservatives at 37%. This marks a significant shift from just a few months ago when the Conservatives held a substantial lead.
Key Issues Dominating the Campaign
The upcoming election is largely centered around the economy and U.S.-Canada relations, particularly in light of the ongoing trade war with U.S. President Donald Trump. Carney, with his economic background, is seen as a strong negotiator in dealing with U.S. trade policies. Poilievre, on the other hand, focuses on affordability, crime, and repealing the carbon tax.
Regional Support and Polling Numbers
The Liberals lead in most regions, including a dominant 28-point lead in Atlantic Canada and a six-point advantage in Ontario. The Conservatives have strong support in Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba. Quebec shows a 16-point advantage for the Liberals over the Bloc Québécois. However, the gap between the Liberals and Conservatives is narrow, with polls indicating a neck-and-neck race.
Public Opinion and Leader Approval
An Ipsos poll found that Carney leads Poilievre by at least 10 percentage points on issues related to handling Trump, including being a “tough negotiator” and uniting Canadians on changes required to reduce dependence on the U.S. Carney also has a higher overall approval rating, with 48% approval and 30% disapproval, compared to Poilievre’s 35% approval and 52% disapproval.
Looking Ahead to Election Day
With polls indicating a close race, both candidates must effectively address key issues to win over voters. The next few weeks will be crucial in determining Canada’s next leader. As Canadians head to the polls on April 28, the outcome remains uncertain, making this election one of the most closely watched in recent years.
